Class Notes
The fact that Bernie Sanders won last night’s New Hampshire primary is no surprise to anyone. However, I think there are many surprised this morning to see that Pete Buttigieg only lost by one percentage point and even more shocked to see Amy Klobuchar came in third. Though these may not be expected, historically speaking there was no surprise. If we look at recent historic trends then we see that the last three Democratic presidents have been surprises. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter were all far from household names and were considered dark horses, when they joined the race. What we see is that known entities like Biden, Sanders, and Warren had as many detractors as supporters before the race even began. In other words, they bring a lot of baggage. Saying this I realize Sanders won last night, but I do not believe that will continue once out of N.H.
The other historic trend we see by looking at recent history is that moderates tend to win campaigns. The fringes of parties get a lot of coverage and passionate supporters, but when it comes to voting, moderates tend to win. The only moderate new-comers are Buttigieg and Klobuchar. I am not saying they are going to win the nomination, but if they do they will be following the historic trend.
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